In January 2026, Exports Are Expected to Remain Above 100,000 mt, Counter-Cyclical Window Likely to Continue [SMM Analysis]

        China's copper cathode exports continued to fluctuate at highs from November to December 2025, with monthly exports exceeding 100,000 mt for two consecutive months, reaching 143,000 mt and a preliminary estimate of 85,000 mt, respectively. As the global regional price spread structure remained mismatched and the counter-cyclical export window had not yet closed, exports in January 2025 were expected to maintain their strength, likely remaining above the 100,000 mt mark.

        The core drivers for exports remained unchanged. On one hand, domestic smelters, constrained by persistently negative TC for imported copper concentrates, faced significant pressure on the raw material side. Some enterprises turned to foreign trade channels to secure better profit structures, enhancing their willingness to export. On the other hand, against the backdrop that end-use consumption had not yet entered a full recovery phase, exports became an important way to alleviate production and sales pressures.

        In terms of flow direction, the COMEX-LME arbitrage space narrowed, and exports to the US were expected to decrease significantly. However, non-long-term contract demand from regions such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Europe was growing. China's spot cargo resources, characterized by short delivery times and flexible brands, continued to gain market favour.

        Although the approaching Chinese New Year might cause short-term disruptions, most current shipping schedules were already arranged for early January. Combined with the SMM survey of smelters' shipping plans, China's copper cathode exports in January 2025 were expected to remain in the range of 100,000–110,000 mt, serving as a key supporting variable at the beginning of 2025.